Looking at the Trends for Gold

I came across an interesting article by Byron King. Here it is:
The first thing I do when I sit down at my desk in the morning is check the price of gold. The second thing I do is check the price of oil.

Sure, the price for gold and oil changes all the time. Prices go up and down, for good and bad reasons. Heck, sometimes prices fluctuate and the reasoning defies logic.

Still, I watch the price points. Deep down, I’m looking to see if the prices for gold and oil are following my long-term view of what ought to happen. That is, my long-term view is that both gold and oil prices are going to rise to astonishing heights.

Scarcity rules. That’s the foundation of my investment thesis. Today, I’ll explain my thinking about gold and leave oil for another time.



Reviewing the Gold Landscape

The first thing to understand, as an old geology professor at Harvard once told me, is that “gold is where you find it.” And the second thing to understand is that no matter where you look, gold is hard to find — and getting harder.

In the past decade, gold-related exploration efforts and expenditures have increased dramatically. I’ve seen numbers adding up to tens of billions of dollars poured by mining companies into gold exploration.

But despite the best efforts of the global mining industry, world gold production has DECREASED since early in this decade. Take a look at the chart below, depicting world gold production 1850-2008.






I Love This Chart

I love this chart. I could spend all day discussing it. For example, look at the very steep rise in gold output during the 1930s. That was during the depths of the worldwide Great Depression. In both the U.S./Canada (blue area), and the rest of the world (gray area), people were digging more and more gold. The Soviets (purple area) increased their gold output too, courtesy of Joseph Stalin and his Gulag. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose. Will that sort of history repeat this time around?


Falling Gold Output, Plus Monetary Inflation

Or look at that massive run-up in gold output from South Africa (green area) in the 1950s and 1960s. That was during a time when South Africa was instituting its post-World War II system of apartheid. Labor was cheap (sorrowfully cheap), and quite a lot of international investment poured into South Africa without moral qualm. The South Africans dug deep and just plain tore into those gold-bearing reef structures of the Witwatersrand Basin.


But notice how quickly the South African gold output declined in the 1970s, as the mines got REALLY deep and the rest of the world began to institute sanctions against South Africa over its apartheid system.


And then look at the gold price run-up that followed in the late 1970s. It was a time of inflation, mainly coming from the U.S. dollar. Yet world gold mine output was dropping as well. Falling output, plus monetary inflation? The gold price skyrocketed. Another bit of useful history, right?


Recent History — the Trend Is Down


Now let’s focus on more recent history, since about 1990. There were large increases in gold output from the U.S./Canada (blue), Australia (gold) and Asia (China orange, non-China open bar). By 2000 or so — the world production peak — gold prices were down toward $300 per ounce and below.


But as the chart shows, in the past 10 years, gold output has shown a marked DECLINE in the major historic gold mining regions. The prolific gold output from the U.S./Canada, Australia and South Africa has followed downward trends. Sure, these regions still lift a lot of ore and pour a lot of melt. But the production trend is DOWN.


Why the downward trend? I suppose you could call it “Peak Gold,” but that term really doesn’t convey the explanation. Let’s highlight some of the reasons for the decline.
In North America, Australia and South Africa, people have been kicking the rocks for 100-150 years. The large deposits and the high-grade good stuff have been discovered. The ore that’s “easy” to mine has been mined. The deeper ore is more expensive to dig, lift and process.

And I have to mention that over time, the culture in so-called “developed” parts of the world has gotten greener. People and policy have turned against mining in the developed world. So mining doesn’t happen where it’s not appreciated.

The flip side is that if mining is declining in the developed world, then the future of gold mining must be growing in the developing world, right? Well, yes and no. Of course, it’s true that there are more rocks to kick and ore bodies to uncover in the underexplored regions of the world. But this leads to another problem.


Development Issues in the Developing World


The U.S./Canada, Australia and South Africa all have well-established and (more or less) workable mining laws — despite the best efforts of many current politicians and regulators to screw it all up. These historically producing areas are politically stable. Overall, there’s good mining infrastructure, with road and rail networks, power systems, refining plants, a vendor base, mining personnel and access to capital.


But that’s not the case in many areas of the developing parts of the world. Political stability? Security? Infrastructure? Transport? Power? Refining? Vendors? Personnel? Capital? Everywhere is different, of course. But overall, the entire process is much more problematic. So there’s a lot more risk. When you move away from the traditional mining jurisdictions, the whole process of exploration, development and mining is more expensive.


Thus, the new gold discoveries of the future are going to lack some (if not most, or perhaps all) of the advantages of the developed mining world. That means that the ore deposits of the future will have to offer much higher profit margins, based on size and ore grade, to compensate for the increased risks. Too bad Mother Nature (or Saint Barbara, who looks after miners) doesn’t work that way.


It also means the timeline to develop the mines of the future will likely be stretched over many years while political, legal, bureaucratic, logistical and social issues are ironed out.


Future Gold Output on a Downward Trend


The key driver for the future of worldwide gold supply will be DECLINING output overall over time. Coupled with monetary inflation, you can expect to see MUCH HIGHER GOLD PRICES.


The gold that does come up will be from more distant locales, and deeper levels, or it will be more costly to process from lower-grade ores. The whole gold mining cycle will get more expensive and more risky.

Pork Prices Are Increasing

According to the Des Moines Register, it seems that Pork prices are next on the list of inflationary increases. Even though there's still no inflation, isn't it funny how everything is increasing in price!

For consumers feeling the pinch of higher food prices, the flooding of prime Midwest farmland will bring more bad news in supermarkets through next year.

By wiping out corn and soybean crops across Iowa, Illinois and other states, the flood is driving up prices that were already at historic highs and increasing the cost of feed for cattle, hogs and poultry.

"I have no choice: going broke or increase prices," said Heinz Kramer, who expects to have to charge more for the pork and beef that he processes at a family-owned company in La Porte City.

Pork prices could be up as much as 30 percent next year because of production cutbacks, said John Lawrence, an economist at Iowa State University. Prices of beef and poultry products are likely to be at least 10 percent higher by the end of this year, he said.

Even the Wall Street Journal has an article on soaring meat prices:

Livestock farmers and meat producers across the country have been dealing with soaring feed costs for nearly two years. Now, heavy flooding in Iowa is sending corn prices even higher. Thursday, the corn futures contract for July delivery closed at $7.27 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, up about 13% from two weeks ago.

The floodwaters, grain prices, worried Wall Street debt raters and sticker-shocked consumers have combined in recent days to slice millions of dollars in value from shares of protein giants such as Smithfield Foods Inc., Tyson Foods Inc. and Pilgrim's Pride Corp.

Tyson shares perked up Thursday after BMO Capital, noting the recent slide, called the company "our favorite ag/protein idea." Tyson shares were up 5.8% at $14.47 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Although meat prices have been climbing of late, the meatpackers and the farmers who supply them haven't been able to offset the huge increase in grain expenses. That is being exacerbated by expected crop losses from flooding and harsh weather.

Dow Chemical To Raise Prices 20%

Global chemical producer Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) announced Wednesday that it would raise prices on all 3,200 of its products – some by as much as 20% – beginning at the start of the third quarter.

Bloomberg News said it's the single-biggest price increase in the Michigan-based company's 111-year history. But Dow Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said the price hike was made necessary by "unparalleled" increases in the costs of energy, transportation and raw materials, which together boosted Dow's expenses 42% in the first quarter.

Does anyone actually believe the US Governments 3% inflation numbers?

Food Inflation At Record Levels

According to USA Today, Food inflation is the highest in almost two decades, driven by record prices for oil, gas and mounting global demand for staples such as wheat and corn, and for proteins such as chicken. And that's reaching into Americans' backyards.

Basic economics account for most of the increase: Bad weather has hurt crops, economic prosperity has driven up demand in developing countries, and surging fuel prices have raised transportation costs.

Economists and food scientists have argued that biofuel production is also a major factor in rising food costs, particularly corn, and that it should be scaled back. Meat and poultry executives have come out against federal ethanol mandates, which they say is driving the cost of corn higher.

Carol Tucker-Foreman, food policy expert at Consumer Federation of America, said high-fructose corn syrup can be found in just about anything you'd find at a cookout or picnic.

"The backyard barbecue is where you'll see the most impact from the government's decision to subsidize the use of food to put fuel in our cars," she said."
This year, the price for a pack of hot dogs has climbed almost 7% to $4.29. A 2-liter bottle of soda and a 16-ounce bag of potato chips both jumped more than 10% to $1.33 and $3.89, respectively, while a package of eight hamburger buns costs $1.61, 17% more.

Still No Inflation?

NYT reports that government figures, released Friday, showed that grocery costs had jumped 5.1 percent in 12 months, the latest in a string of increases. In fact, the nation is undergoing its worst grocery inflation since the early 1990s.

With a few exceptions, nearly every grocery category measured by the Labor Department, which compiles the official inflation numbers, has increased in the last year. Milk is up 17 percent, as are dried beans, peas and lentils. Cheese is up 15 percent, rice and pasta 13 percent, and bread 12 percent.

No food product has gone up as much as eggs, jumping 25 percent since February 2007 and 62 percent in the last two years.

"It's a great time to be an egg farmer," said Paul Sauder, a third-generation farmer in Lititz, Pa. His farm ships eggs to food service customers and grocery stores, including Stop & Shop. "We've never encountered this kind of run like we've had right now."